According to Schmidt Automotive Research and industry data, the UK surpassed Germany in 2024 by just over 1,000 units, becoming Europe’s largest market for new pure electric (BEV) passenger cars for the first time. The UK’s SMMT reported that 381,970 new BEV cars were registered in 2024, representing 19.6% of the total 1,952,778 new cars, or roughly one in every five new cars. In comparison, Germany registered 380,609 new BEVs, according to KBA industry data.
The introduction of the ZEV mandate, set at 22%, but which allows manufacturers to “bank or borrow” credits from other manufacturers or over-comply in future years, explains the discrepancy between the new car market falling just below that target. Few if any OEMs are due to face fines for non-compliance in 2024, which many auto industry leaders stressed.
The market’s performance during 2024 acted as a key market indicator for EU markets that collectively see regulatory changes from 2025 and suggests auto manufacturers are likely to hit targets when push comes to shove during the next 12 months.
OEMs operating in the EU, plus Norway and Iceland, must hit a fleet average CO2 emission target of 93.6g/km (15% reduction over 2021 – 2024 levels) from 2025 and the following four years, down from around 119g/km during 2024. The target is mass-eight fleet based and varies slightly between various OEMs, with premium brands having to go slightly beyond that.
However, there are a number of adjustment mechanisms in place that make that target more achievable than headline numbers suggest.
Germany’s demise and lack of progress in France can be attributed to the pausing of new BEV model launches and deliveries in 2024 as OEMs wait until 2025 to deliveries these models, improving their chances of meeting the new regulatory targets.
Meanwhile, Germany is at the lower point of a cyclical cycle during 2024.
A pull-forward in private BEV deliveries during the end of 2022 before subsidies were reduced and a fall-away of subsidies for corporate drivers from autumn 2023 all left its mark on a weak 2024.
However, our monthly study, which exclusively analyses and tracks this data on a monthly basis for our client base and publishes this in our monthly studies, fully expects the Germany market to recover towards the end of 2025 as three-year lease drivers return to the market in the second half of 2025 and corporate drivers from 2026.
